The Fight to Win the SocialTV Battle

 Discussion/debate about Twitter and Facebook usage on the second screens while watching TV around the blogosphere has been at all time highs recently.  What seems somewhat clear is that socialTV is helping to push viewers back to live viewing in an age when DVRs and on-demand programming have pushed down ratings. "It's a great symbiotic relationship where we drive the conversation on Facebook and Twitter, and that viral conversation drives people back to watch our shows," said Viacom chief Philippe Dauman in an interview with Bloomberg. He offered up MTV's recent Video Music Awards as a prime example, a show that generated 18.5 million tweets (personally I thought that was do to Miley Cryus's foam finger and twerking but I'll give them that). The topic is getting even more hype do to the very open efforts by both Facebook's and Twitter as they clammer for the attention of TV networks and producers. At the end of September Facebook announced it would start sharing weekly data reports with ABC, NBC, Fox and CBS. The "big data" being shared includes the number of likes, comments and shares TV episodes get on the social network.

 

Yesterday the antisipated unveiling of Nielsen and Twitter first list of TV show rankings and ironically there was little connection between most watched shows and most talked about shows. Twitter reported Breaking Bad took the most tweets for the week of Sept. 23-29 while the top primetime show in total viewers was actually NBC's NFL Football: New England at Atlanta. The only show that did appear in both top ten lists for the week was The Voice, which ranked number two on Twitter's list and number eight and nine on the primetime rankings.

Initial analysis of TV activity shows that the entire Twitter TV audience for per episode is, on average, 50 times larger than the authors. If, for example, 2,000 people are tweeting about a program, 100,000 people are seeing those Tweets. Those 100,000 aren’t necessarily viewers of that particular TV episode. Nielsen notes that Nielsen Twitter TV Ratings are a separate set of metrics to traditional National TV Ratings. They do not change traditional National TV Ratings. But many believe they will complement each other.  To me this sounds like typical audience inflation many have debated with Nielsen data for years. The numbers are however one chooses to interpret them however the questions the advertisers need to ask is, are the RIGHT people seeing this stuff and are they buying anything?

The Netflix Effect

Television viewing of both cable and broadcast networks fell among adults under age 50 in the fall season. According to Nielsen, the major broadcast networks lost an average of 15% of their viewers in the 18-49 demographic compared with the prior season. In contrast, A record 456.6M online videos were watched in 2012 by more than 182M users. The switch is obvious in my test lab (aka: household) where my tech savvy wife and highly connected teens stream 90% of the video they watch from the web. While this all makes sense I have also noticed the ginormous audience growth that each new season of shows like "Breaking Bad", "Sons of Anarchy" and the resent return of "The Walking Dead" were seeing. Is there a snowball effect to new seasons viewing because of the easy access to past episodes? Just how are streaming services like Hulu, Netflix and others effecting the viewership of television? In a quest for quantifiable data to answer these questions, I uncovered two 2012 studies, one done by Bernstein Research and the other by GfK North America that confirmed my theory and shed some light on my questions.

The Bernstein Research analysis of viewing patterns was conducted in Tivo homes during the first quarter of 2012. What the study identified was that ratings for AMC, which exclusively licenses several of its original series to Netflix, were actually 15% higher in homes with Netflix than non-Netflix homes. Tie this back to the lift in viewers for the new season of "The Walking Dead" where it recently returned for the second half of its already much-improved third season to even higher ratings than before: 12.3 million viewers. Impressive numbers especially when you consider that it was up against the Grammys on its premier night.


Netflix itself seems to back up the finding by contending that its service gives viewers more opportunities to sample programming in its first window by providing older episodes that let them see what they've missed hence, they are more likely to watch new episodes of those shows when the new seasons return.

The GfK study concurs, stating that more than half of the Netflix subscribers in their focus groups said that it had no effect on their viewing from more traditional sources. But what’s even more interesting is how many respondents said they watched scheduled TV even "more" than they did before subscribing to the service.

Singling out first-run dramas, for example, reveals 22 percent of respondents said they watch more new episodes of dramas on scheduled TV than they did before getting Netflix, with 10 percent who said they watch less (See GfK chart below for more details on viewing patterns.)

"House of Cards" - The Game Changer?

Netflix is betting the house that "House of Cards" will become the juggernaut that propels the company onto the next level. The company reportedly spent $100 million to secure the rights to the series starring Kevin Spacey, out bidding other mainstream networks like AMC and HBO. This is the first TV series developed/distributed exclusively on Netflix and the company has decided to also take a nontraditional approach by releasing all 13 episodes at once.
This trend is not new for legacy programming as services like Netflix, Hulu, as well as digital video recorders, have transformed the TV viewing experience by enabling viewers to devour multiple episodes or even entire seasons in marathon viewing sessions. Since the inception of television Hollywood has always fed audiences on a steady diet of, "Wait a week and we'll give you new episodes, then wait a season, we'll give you another season," Netflix Chief Content Office Ted Sarandos said. "The Internet is attuning people to get what they want when they want it," Sarandos said to an LA Times reporter. "'House of Cards' is literally the first show for the on-demand generation." If successful, the strategy could begin to unwind 60 years of serialized television but what else could it change? Potentially everything... the way we talk about what we watch, the way we share it, the way reviewers critique shows, and even the way the industry monetizes content.
In the meantime, will "Cards" be a success? We may never know since Netflix does not divulge ratings or numbers, following in the footsteps of the pay cable networks, which only like to discuss actual data when it suits them. Will this non-conventional launch approach stick? I bet it will!! Let’s be sure to revisit this topic later in the quarter when the independent research groups or Netflix begin to release their findings.

Fox Wins with 50th Daytona 500

Sunday's running of the Daytona 500 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race on Fox scored increased average audience, total audience and household ratings compared to a year ago, according to fast national figures released today by Nielsen Media Research.

The 50th Daytona 500 averaged 17.8 million viewers, a 1 percent improvement over last season (17.5 million). It was also the second highest-rated and second most-watched 500 ever on Fox, trailing the 2005 race in both stats. According to a network news release, 33.5 million Americans watched at least part of the race.

Obviously Ryan Newman Penske Racing and Dodge are not alone in Sunday’s winners circle. Fox had previously announced that it had sold out its inventory for the telecast with 30-second spots selling for $550,000 each, up from $475,000 last year.

DVR Playback makes Significant Increase to Viewing Levels

Playback from DVRs is increasing the amount of time people spend watching television, according to new data from The Nielsen Company. In comparing total television usage (Live viewing plus DVR playback) for persons 18-49 in 11/07 to total television usage in 11/05 (before Nielsen measured DVR homes and penetration was very low) Nielsen found that viewing had increased slightly throughout the day, and was 3% higher at 9:00 p.m. and 5% higher between 11:00 p.m.-midnight. Links: Investor's Business Daily, Feb 14, 2008 - Nielsen Reports DVR Playback is Adding to TV Viewing Levels and Nielsen - Press Release

Big Win for Fox with Super Bowl XLII

Sunday's Super Bowl XLII on FOX was the most-watched Super Bowl game in 42 years of Super Bowls and also ranks as the second most-watched program in TV history with 97.5 million viewers, surpassing the 1996 Super Bowl game which drew in 94.1 million viewers. It follows the final episode of M*A*S*H which aired February 28, 1983 and drew in 106 million viewers. As for the advertising, well Marketers are getting extra bang for their Super Bowl ad bucks through views of their spots on dozens of general and niche Web sites, as well as via playbacks on DVRs, according to this New York Times article. Link: NYTimes.com, 02/05/08 - For Marketing, the Most Valuable Player Might Be YouTube

DVR and Viewership

DVR penetration is still on the rise and while more and more viewers are recording programs, they're actually not delaying viewing for very long, according to a recent analysis conducted by Palisades MediaGroup. The study discovered that, on average, more than half of all DVR primetime program playback is done within the same day it was recorded. And by the end of the following day, DVR owners have completed approximately three-quarters of all program playback. "Nielsen estimates DVR penetration to be at 20%, up from 12% in January of this year. While this is a good-sized increase, the impact on viewership remains minor."



According to the study, ratings increase just over 15% due to DVR playback from live to live-plus-seven. The average rating against adults aged 18-49 was 2.5 for live viewing and 2.9 for live-plus-seven viewing; an increase of only 16.7%. While fast-forwarding through the ads is still an issue, not all people who use a DVR fast-forward. The data show that less than half of people who watch a recorded program fast-forward through the ads during playback. Equally significant, the top 10 most-DVR'd primetime shows among adults 18-49 experience as much as 58% of playback on the same day (CBS's Survivor: China) and as little as 27%.

Commercial Ratings – Power in the DVR Viewers Hands

This month, Nielsen Media Research began measuring how TV viewing habits have changed and they released their report on “commercial ratings” this morning. Finding: More than half of digital video recorder (DVR) users fast-forwarded through commercials while watching prime-time network fare. With 17 percent of the nation’s TV viewers armed with DVRs, 10 percent of broadcasting primetime programming is now time-shifted. On a positive note, when you combine time-shifted numbers (out to three days) with live numbers, Nielsen said viewership of the typical prime-time show increases by 73 percent. For example, The Office jumps from 3.11 to 3.36 among the 18-49 demographic. This is no surprise, as previous ratings didn’t include the time-shifted ratings, and not everyone who watches shows on DVRs are skipping the ads(just halp of them), so there’s a net increase on paper. But when all is said and done, the simple fact remains: people with DVRs skip most of the commercials, and DVR penetration is climbing fast. I think it’s pretty obvious where this is going. Link(s): TVweek.com May 31, 2007, AP May 31, 2007 - More than half of DVR viewers skipping commercials, Nielsen says in first ad study

Ad-supported cable viewership up 29%, broadcast falls 17%

The driving force in TV growth is cable, says Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer of Turner Broadcasting. Viewing of ad-supported cable is 29% higher than five years ago, with adults 18-49 now watching 15 hours per week. Broadcast viewing has fallen 17% to 8.5 hours per person per week. Link: Media Daily News, Dec 14, 06 - Ad-supported cable viewership up 29%, broadcast falls 17%